Wimbledon Betting Tips

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Wimbledon Betting Tips
Wimbledon Betting Tips

Wimbledon Betting Tips 2019: The most prestigious Tennis Tournament in the World is almost upon us. On July 1st the 2019 Wimbledon Grand Slam will take place at the All England Club for the 133rd edition.

Over the last 15 years, the Men’s tournament has been dominated by four players. Roger Federer, Rafa Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Andy Murray.

Djokovic, Federer, and Nadal lead the outright betting market which shouldn’t be a surprise. Murray who has announced his retirement can’t be considered a contender here despite his relatively short odds on offer.

What to consider when betting on matches at Wimbledon?

  • Grass is the fastest playing surface on tour. So expect shorter rallies, more Aces, and players with a powerful serve to do better than usual.
  • With breaks of serve less common on grass, we have to consider how good players are in Tie-breakers.
  • The Grass season in Tennis is extremely short, and there are very few specialists on this surface.
  • Head to Heads: It’s possible we see Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer in the semi-finals so looking at the H2H’s on Grass is important.
  • Fatigue – Which players can withstand the arduous tasks of battling through to the final and still have enough left in the tank to win it. Does an almost 38-year-old Federer have what it takes still?

The contenders – Wimbledon 2019 Betting Tips

Novak Djokovic @ 2.62

  • The world No.1 Novak Djokovic has won 3 of the last 5 at Wimbledon and is rightly favorite here.
  • The Serb is 44-6 for his last 50 matches on Grass with his only loss since 2017 coming to Marin Cilic at the Queens Club event.
  • Djokovic is 26-1 over the last 12 months at Grandslams.
  • Novak’s TB record this last year has been decent too with at 19-8 record at the time of writing.

Verdict: I don’t see any player pushing Djokovic this year unless he comes up against Federer in peak condition then maybe. But that’s the only question mark at this time.

Roger Federer @ 5.00

  • The Swiss Maestro is second in the betting to Djokovic. He will be gunning for his 9th Wimbledon Title as he looks to extend his already record number of 8.
  • Roger is 43-7 for this last 50 matches on Grass, The last time he won an event on Grass was Wimbledon 2017 when he beat Marin Cilic in straight sets.
  • Since then he lost to Borna Coric at the Halle FInal last year and was eliminated from Wimbledon last year after a classic 5 set battle with Kevin Anderson.
  • Federer is 15-4 over the last 12 months in Grand Slams
  • Roger’s Tie Break record for these past 12 months hasn’t been great with an 18-12 record at the time of writing

Verdict: If Federer can avoid burnout and gets a favorable draw he can go all the way. The 5.00 on offer currently represents no value in my opinion though and that price will probably get even shorter with public money coming in closer to the start of the tournament.

Rafael Nadal @ 9.00

  • The King of  Clay is 3rd in the Betting for Wimbledon this year. Like the other two contenders, Nadal is a previous Champion here and will be hoping to claim his 3rd title.
  • Rafa is 38-12 for his last 50 on Grass. The Spaniard hasn’t enjoyed much success here in recent years. Last year he was beaten by Novak in the Semi’s, in 2017 he lost in the R16 to Giles Muller, in 2015 Dustin Brown knocked him out in the R64 and then in 2014 Nick Kyrgios beat him in the R16
  • Nadal’s TB record over the last 12 months is decent with a 12-8 record at the time of writing

Verdict: Regardless of his clay court season, Nadal is in decline and I don’t believe these odds represent any value.

Darkhorses

Alexander Zverev @ 19.00

  • The German has all the tools to have success at Wimbledon.
  • So far in his career, Zverev has mostly disappointed in Grand Slams despite his obvious talent.
  • Zverev is 22-11 on Grass in his career.
  • His best ever run at Wimbledon was back in 2017 when he made it to the 4th round losing narrowly to Raonic over 5 sets.
  • Zverev has wins over Federer and Djokovic on Grass/Hard Court so we know the potential is there to upset the odds.
  • At 22 years of age, Zverev will possibly be able to withstand the effects of fatigue better than Federer (37) Nadal (33) and Djokovic (32)
  • Saying that the German is playing a lot of tennis in 2019 and could start to feel the effects of a heavy schedule.

Auger-Aliassime @ 40.00

  • FAA is 7-2 on grass in 2019 and make it to the Final in Stuttgart as well as the Semi-Final at Queens.
  • During this run he beat Nick Kyrgios, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Grigor Dimitrov, and Giles Simon so he has to be respected here.
  • With a hold % on grass in excess of 92% and crazy athleticism, FAA can go far in this tournament if the draw is kind enough to him.
  • The Canadian doesn’t have

Kevin Anderson @ 41.00

  • Kevin Anderson went well here last year reaching the final.
  • He did lose the final 3-0 but the accumulated fatigue Anderson picked up in that tournament was his downfall.
  • If he can avoid that this time around expect him to go deep into the tournament.
  • Anderson is 33-17 in his last 50 on Grass and 35-15 in his last 50 Grand Slams.
  • In the last 5 years, Anderson has reached the R16, R16, R128, R16, and Final.
  • Anderson’s TB record over the last 12 months is also decent 23-16

John Isner @ 124.00

  • Isner is another player who’s massive serve can take him deep into the tournament
  • On Grass Isner is 35-15 and in his last 50 at Grand Slams he’s 34-16
  • Isner had his best ever run in Wimbledon last year. He made it all the way to Semi-Finals beating Maden, Bemelmans, Albot, Tsitsipas, and Raonic along the way.
  • At the time of writing Isner has not competed since he made it to the Final of the Miami Masters. The American is believed to be recovering from a stress fracture but is expected to be fully healthy for Wimbledon.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga @ 201.00

  • Tsonga is another player who we can class as somewhat of a grass specialist. The Frenchman has gone well here in the past getting to the 4th round or better 6 times in the past
  • Tsonga does tend to struggle against players with a similar playing style of grass so if he can avoid some of the big servers in his draw he might have a chance at another deep run.
  • Tsonga is 35-15 on Grass in his last 50. All of his losses on this surface since 2015 have come against Elite players or big servers (Djokovic, Karlovic, Murray, Muller, Querrey)

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