US OPEN Tennis Tips
EVANS V POUILLE – US OPEN Tennis Tips
Dan Evans to win at 2.63 with Betfair – 2 units
- The Brit actually has the better-combined hold/break % on hard court so I feel the Frenchman is being slightly overvalued here. Perhaps because of his run at the Australian Open earlier this year
- Evans breezed past Mannarino in Rd 1 winning 3-1 and said he liked the conditions and was even disappointed he didn’t play better
- Pouille had a much easier test against a lackluster Philipp Kohlschreiber. Pouille got in only 50% of his first serves in that match but it didn’t seem to matter, Kohli is now in rapid decline at 35
- Despite his epic run in Australian, Pouille is only 9-7 on HC this year. It’s also worth noting he got bounced from Indian Wells (similar conditions to here) in the first round against Hurkacz
- In Cincinnati last week he went well beating Shapovalov and Khachanov but the court speed there is completely different to the US Open
BROOKSBY V BASILASHVILLI – US OPEN Tennis Tips
Basilashvilli -5.5 games at 1.8 with Betfed – 2 units
- There is an enormous difference between Basil and Brooksby’s hold break % on hard court and I think Basil is going to blast him off the court in straight sets. Even playing badly he should be able to cover this spread.
- Brooksby holds serve on HC just 63.7% (Basil 80%) The American also breaks only 15.6% while Basil breaks 24.3%
- Brooksby did beat a big name in the first round in Tommy Berdych, but in truth, Berdych is no long mobile with his injuries and would have been beaten by most Top 200-300 guys
ZVEREV V TIAFOE – US OPEN Tennis Tips
Zverev -4.5 games at 2.17 – 2.5 units
- On Paper Tiafoe looks to have found some form but 3 of the last 4 opponents he’s faced have been injured and retired. In the one match he played against a healthy player (Hurkacz @ Winston Salem) he lost
- Tiafoe is 1-9 over the last 12 months against Top 10 players. His win over an unhealthy Kevin Anderson the only victory (Aus Open)
- He also has a pretty poor record even with the home crowd, Excluding the win over Karlovic in the 1st round. He’s 1-5 here with his only win coming over Adrian Mannarino
- These two have faced off 4 times in the past with Zverev leading the H2H 3-1. All of Sascha’s win have been comfortable straight-set victories
- Zverev did get pushed to 5 sets against Albot who dug deep, but I actually think this will be an easier match for Zverev. I’m hoping he’s regained a small bit of confidence from that win too. Like I said earlier in the week, most of his issues are mental. He has the game to beat anyone.
ISNER V STRUFF – US OPEN Tennis Tips
Struff to win at 2.16 with Unibet – 2 units
- Isner has not looked the same since returning for Wimbledon after his injury. Since then he’s played 8 times on hard court and won only half of those matches. Losses came to Opelka, Hurkacz, Thompson, and Carreno-Busta
- Struff is arguably a tougher opponent than all those players and the slow conditions probably won’t suit Isner either.
- Isner is 9-17 against “Big Servers” over the last 12 months. Backing him blindly in such matches would have resulted in a huge -42.9% ROI
- Struff, in contrast, is 26-21 against “Big Servers” over the last 12 months.
- In the first round, Struff powered past Casper Rud winning 92% of his points behind his 1st serve and pretty much bossed the rallies
- From Ruud’s 16 service games in that match, Struff created 8 BP’s
- Isner got 36-year-old GGL in the 1st round and was always going to breeze past the aging Spaniard.