US Open Outright Tips
US Open Tennis Tips: The US Open will get underway on the 26th of August at Flushing Meadows, New York. Novak Djokovic will be hoping once again to regain his title and win his 3rd Grand Slam of the year. In his way however there stands some huge competition. We’ll take a look at the main contenders for the Men’s draw and where we believe the value lies for the last Grand Slam of the Year.
The Betting – US Open Tennis Tips
- Djokovic 2.2
- Nadal 5.5
- Federer 8.5
- Medvedev 19.00
- Tsitsipas 34.00
- Thiem 34.00
- Wawrinka 41.00
- Zverev 41.00
Let’s start with the defending Champ. At the time of writing, he’s holding serve on hard court 89.5% and breaking 32%. So far this year on hard court he’s gone 16-4 with losses coming to Daniil Medvedev, Roberto Bautista-Agut x2, and Philip Kohlschreiber.
At Grand Slams, however, Djokovic is 26-1 over the last 12 months with his only loss coming on Clay to Dominic Thiem.
Djoker is a worthy favourite here but I’d be reluctant to back him at these odds pre-tournament.
Fun Fact: Djokovic has lost 5 Finals at Flushing Meadows
Since 2010 Nadal has won here three times and been the runner-up once. At the time of writing, he’s holding serve on hard court 87% and breaking serve 30.2%. Over the last 12 Months, Nadal is 21-5 on hard court with losses coming to Federer, Kyrgios, Djokovic, Kevin Anderson and Del Potro
Just like Djokovic, we can expect the best from Nadal in Grand Slams, Over the last 12 months he’s 23-3 with his only losses coming against Top 5 players
Federer hasn’t won here since 2008 and at odds of only 8.5, I think we’re looking at very poor value bet. Federer is 38 now and if he was going to win another Grand Slam, Wimbledon this summer was his best opportunity.
At the time of writing Federer is holding serve on hard court 92.4% and breaking 22.7%. On Hard Court, over the last 12 Months, Federer is 26-5 with losses coming to Rublev, Thiem, Tsitsipas, Coric, and John Millman and last years US Open.
Federer struggled a lot with the conditions in New York last year (Hot and Humid) so it will be interesting to see how he does here. Early indications seem to show that the weather shouldn’t be as extreme.
In Grand Slams Federer is 17-4 over the last 12 months. His loss to Millman was the only loss to a player outside the Top 10.
Medvedev just beat Novak Djokovic in the Cincinnati Masters and has been the most impressive player on the US Hard Court swing this year.
At the time of writing, he’s holding serve on Hard Court 84.3% and breaking 27.6%. On Hard court, over the last 12 months, the Russian is 23-7 with the majority of his losses coming against Top 10 guys (Federer x2, Nishikori, Djokovic, and Nadal)
Medvedev has disappointed on the big stage however, he’s 13-13 in his career at Grand Slams. His best-ever run was getting to the R16 of the Australian Open where he lost 3-1 to Djokovic.
Medvedev is growing as a player and I believe this could be a breakout tournament for him.
Stefanos took the tour by storm in 2018 but he’s having a very quiet 2019 so far. At the time of writing, he’s only 38-18 (67.86%) in 2019 and 15-8 (65.22%) on Hard Court.
His Hold/Break percentages are a lot poor than the players we’ve mentioned above too. He holds serve 88.1% and breaks only 16.8%
Last year at the US Open he crashed out early to his nemesis Daniil Medvedev. Personally, I don’t see him coming close to winning this tournament. His current odds are 34.00 but I’d want a price bigger than 151.00 to have any interest. Clear pass for me.
Thiem is known more his clay-court play but has decent numbers on hard court. At the time of writing, he’s holding serve 84.2% and breaking serve 19%. Over the last 12 months, he’s 13-9 on hard court.
Earlier in the year, he won the Indian Wells Masters event (hard court) beating Monfils, Raonic, and Federer so we know he’s capable of a deep run in this tournament if he comes in with the right mentality.
Although his hold/break % isn’t fantastic I rank his as the 5th/65h best hard court player in the World at the moment. However, with his only around 34.00, I don’t see any value backing the Austrian.
Stanimal won this event back in 2016 defeating Novak Djokovic in 4 sets. With that being said his Hold/break % on hard court leaves a lot to be desired. He holds serve 84.7% and breaks only 17.5%. Of all the players we’ve mentioned so far, only Tsitsipas is worse breaking serve on this surface.
Wawrinka is 11-9 on hard courts this season and should do well to make it to the R16 or better.
At odds of only 41.00, this is an easy pass for me. No value
Zverev has everything going for him but in terms of his mental game, he’s one of the weakest players on tour. Even with all of his ability, I couldn’t in good conscience recommend a bet on him at these odds.
Over the last 12 months, he’s 16-9 on Hard Court with most of those losses coming against lower-ranked opponents (Tsitsipas, Haase, Kohlschreiber, Jaziri, Raonic, Kyrgios, Struff, Ferrer, and Kecmanovic)
At Grand Slams we’ve also seen Sascha struggle a lot, he’s 9-4 over the last 12 months. His biggest win was over Fognini at the French Open. Apart from that, he hasn’t beaten anyone in the Top 30
Nick Kyrgios is an enigma, on his day he can beat the worlds best and he proved that at the ATP Washington event in which he beat Tsitsipas and Medvedev on his way to winning the tournament. Earlier in the year he also won the Acapulco event defeating Nadal, Wawrinka, Isner, and Zverev.
At the time of writing NK has one of the best hard court serve %’s on tour. He holds serve 90%. If he comes in healthy and is serving well he has the game to win this tournament or at the very least reach the semi’s
Fun Fact: Nick has beaten Federer, Djokovic, Nadal, Medvedev, and Tstitsipas
Best of the rest – US Open Tennis Tips
- Bautista-Agut: 19-6 on hard court in 2019 with elite hold/break % numbers on hard court
- Isner: Struggling for fitness but his 92.9% hold % on hard court means he can’t be underestimated
- Monfils: When healthy, one of the best hard-court players in the world. In 2016 he reached the semi-finals here losing in 4 sets to Djokovic.
- Rublev: Just beat Roger Federer at Cincinnati and has the game to trouble a lot of players.
Recommended Bets – US Open Tennis Tips
- Nadal to win Outright @ 5.5 – 2 units
- Daniil Medvedev to win Outright @ 19.00 – 1 unit
- Nick Kyrgios to win Outright @ 41.00 – 0.25 units
- Bautista-Agut to win Outright @ 67.00 – 025 units