US Open Tennis Tips – Monday: Below are our favorite bets from the Men’s draw for Monday. Enjoy!
RUBLEV V BERRETTINI
Rublev -2.5 games @ 1.79 with Pinnacle – 2.5 units
- Berrettini has had the far easier path to this stage having met Gasquet, Thompson, and 106th ranked Popyrin in the last round
- Rublev, in contrast, has taken out two of the players expected to do well here in Tsitsipas and Nick Kyrgios. What’s more impressive is that he’s only dropped 1 set so far
- Rublev should have a clear advantage returning, he breaks 23.7% on hard court compared to Berrettini who breaks only 18%
- Berrettini is only 9-7 on hard court in 2019, he had a lot of success on clay and grass but not so much on hard court. We should also note that from these 9 wins only two came against Top 50 players, Kukushkin and Gasquet.
- Rublev is 25-11 on hard court this year and already has wins over Kyrgios, Tsitsipas, Federer, Querrey, Wawrinka, Basilashvilli, Kukushkin, Cilic and Pouille.
- These two met each other in Marseille earlier this year (Indoor hard) and Rublev won in straight sets.
- Finally, Rublev has had 389 mins of court time compared to Berrettini’s 555 mins. After his last battle with Popyrin he was quoted as saying “I am really tired, really exhausted. This guy is really young. He is impressive. I am happy for my win. This is unbelievable. I think I really need to rest a little bit and then I will be ready on Monday.”
ZVEREV V SCHWARTZMAN
Schwartzman to win at 2.03 with Pinnacle – 2.5 units
- Zverev was once again unconvincing against Bedene in this last round despite the Slovenian having pretty poor hold/break %’s on hard court. Bedene had done pretty much nothing on hard court leading up to this tournament so it doesn’t do anything to raise Zverev’s stock in my opinion
- In Schwartzman, he’ll be taking on his toughest opponent yet. The Argentine breaks serve on hardcourt 33% of the time and will have plenty of opportunities to jump all over Zverev’s serve.
- Schwartzman hasn’t had the hardest of draws but has won all three matches in straight sets. Zverev has had around 3 hours more court time in total so he should be the fresher of the two.
- Zverev has one win in his career over a Top 20 player (Schwartzman #21 but let’s assume he’s Top 20) in Grand Slams.
- Overall, Zverev hasn’t done anything to show me he’s improved this year and I think Schwartzman will have the edge if this turns out to be a long drawn out match.