MEDVEDEV V DIMITROV – US Open Semi-Final Tips
US Open Semi-Final Tips
Medvedev -3.5 games at 1.91 with Boylesports – 3 units
- I’m not interested in hedging my bets here, this is a very winnable game for the Russian and I think with two days rest his fitness issues will be behind him.
- Dimitrov has exceeded everyone’s expectations in this tournament but I believe he’s going to run into a brick wall here.
- Medvedev beat Dimitrov when they last met on hard court winning 6-4 6-2, It’s fair to say Medvedev has improved substantially since that meeting in 2017 while Dimitrov has declined
- The Russian holds serve 85.5% of har court and breaks serve 27.6%, Dimitrov falls short in both hold and serve and should be at a big disadvantage.
- Daniil has now won 15 of his last 16 matches on hard court with his only loss coming to Rafa Nadal in Montreal
- I’ve talked a lot about Dimitrov’s easy draw just tournament and I don’t want to take anything away from his Federer win but we have to remember that Federer was hampered with an upper back problem and faded rather badly towards the end of the match.
- The only doubt for this bet is Medvedev’s fitness but like I said above, the two days of rest will probably mean we see an even better version of him today.
BERRETTINI V NADAL
Nadal -7.5 games at 1.8 with Bet365 – 3 units
- I see Nadal forcing Berrettini onto his weaker backhand a lot in this match and during the rallies, it shouldn’t even be close
- Berrettini although younger isn’t close to being as mobile as Nadal and will struggle if Nadal can have success returning his serve
- Being a lefty Nadal will probably have a lot of success hitting his cross-court forehands forcing Berretini onto his backhand (His main weapon is his forehand)
- Nadal beat Schwartzman by 8 games, Cilic by 9 games, Chung by 9 games, and Millman by 11 games
- Berretini’s serve has been attackable by players with far worse break numbers on hard court
- Nadal breaks 32.1% on this surface so assuming Berrettini doesn’t have a flawless game Nadal will have a lot of success returning
- I think he’ll also benefit from playing Cilic recently too, he really found his rhythm on return in that match (against a big server).
- In his last match, he gave Monfils 15 BP attempts of which the Frenchman converted just 33%, I don’t see Nadal being as forgiving
- Lastly, We observed Berrettini completely choke the last time he was on the big stage (Wimbledon vs Federer) Once he fell behind in that match he pretty much gave up. I expect the same here.