UFC ON ESPN 7 – OVEREEM V ROZENSTRUIK [Archive of members tips]
OVEREEM V ROZENSTRUIK
Rozenstruik to win at 2.05 with Pinnacle – 5 units
- These two fighters are on very different trajectories. Overeem was once the cream of the crop in the HW division, but his durability issues have held him back in recent years.
- Overeem has taken some vicious KO’s in recent years which means every time he steps into the octagon the chances of getting KO’d again get higher and higher
- Ever since Bigfoot Silva flash KO’d the Reem back in 2013, he’s had severe problems with KO losses to Travis Browne, Ben Rothwell, Stipe Miocic, Francis N’Gannou and most recently Curtis Blaydes
- Rozenstruik is a kickboxer by trade and has an almost identical reach to Overeem. I see him cause Overeem a lot of problems if this fight stays standing
- Jarzinho has 76 kickboxing wins to his name from 82 bouts while in MMA he’s 9-0-0 with 8 KO’s coming in MMA
- Since coming into the UFC, Jarzinho has slept every opponent he’s faced within the opening 6 mins of each fight. Albini, Crowder, and Arlovski are all fighters with betting chins than Overeem, and they couldn’t handle the power.
- Rozenstruik is eight years Overeem’s junior when there’s this much of an age gap young beats old 64% of the time
- If this fight stays standing, I favor Rozenstruik massively. His power cannot be taken for granted.
ROTHWELL V STRUVE
Rothwell to win at 1.73 with Skybet/Betway – 4 units
- Back in February, Struve retired from MMA; perhaps this was partly because he has a “leaking aortic valve” and an enlarged heart. Read more. However, in an interview with Ariel Helwani, he revealed that he was bored and decided to return to fighting. In my opinion, I always see a fighter announcing a retirement as a huge red flag; if it’s not health-related, it tends to mean their heart isn’t in it anymore.
- In his last bout, Struve managed to get off precisely 0 strikes on his opponent but ended up getting lucky when he mounted and submitted the Brazilian. In that fight, Struve got dropped in the opening seconds by Lima’s first strike
- With Rothwell’s wrestling background, I don’t see him being given such an easy path to victory this time. I expect this one to stay on the feet where Rothwell will have a considerable advantage.
- Rothwell’s advantage will lie in his durability, Unlike Stuve, Rothwell can take a shot and keep walking forward, Struve cannot
- Despite losing three in a row. Rothwell hasn’t been knocked out in any, and in my opinion, he actually won the Ivanov fight (March)
- Providing Struve doesn’t take this fight to the mat and lock in a submission. I see Rothwell landing the heavier shots and potentially putting Struve away as he gets back into the win column.
- Although the age difference is big, I give the cardio advantage to Rothwell too. Struve will tire as the fight progresses and when that happens he get’s very sloppy and can be prone to takedowns himself.
ROB FONT V RICKY SIMON
Rob Font to win at 1.74 with Pinnacle – 3.5 units
- Ricky Simon is coming off an embarrassing loss to a 40-year-old Urijah Faber who KO’d him in his retirement comeback fight
- Simon has one of the toughest Bantamweights in the division to get through here. Font tends to only lose to the cream of the crop in this division (Assuncao, Munhoz, and Lineker)
- Font is the busier striker so if this goes to the judge’s scorecards
- So far in their UFC career’s Fon’t Significant Strikes per minute ratio is far higher than his opponents (4.94-2.72)
- With Font’s sufficient takedown defense, better striking, and heavier hands I have to favor him in this match-up, especially considering Simon is coming off a KO loss.
- Simon does have a grappling advantage but I see Font managing distance and piecing him up on the feet while landing the harder more damaging shots.
ASPEN LADD V YANA KUNITSKAYA
Ladd to win at 1.67 with William Hill – 5 units
- Ladd got handed her first loss last time out. However it’s not unfair to say they brutal weight cut played a part in that loss. Read more
- Recently it appears Ladd is taking her weight a lot more seriously. She even had her suspension from the CSAC lifted after showing signs of “real weight loss” and not just dehydration.
- Assuming she cuts her weight like a professional here she has an easy path to victory in my opinion
- Ladd has an 80% success rate on takedowns in the UFC. With that in mind I see her having some success putting the Russian on her back and landing her damaging ground and pound.
- Kunitskaya has 0% TD defense in the UFC
- In Kunitskaya’s last fight she took on Marion Reneu, a fighter who is quite similar stylistically to Ladd but probably a little bit worse everywhere. Kunitskyaya did win that fight but it was very close and Reneau had her damaged badly in the 3rd round