ARLOVSKI VS ROZENSTRUIK
UFC Analysis – UFC 244: Arlovski to win at 2.38 with SkyBet – 3.5 units
- Rozenstruik comes from a kickboxing background with the majority of his fights coming on the Suirnamise regional scene. He does have two wins in the UFC from 2 bouts but both came against awful competition
- Albini who is 1-4 in the UFC was KO’d in the second round after a barrage of strikes.
- While Allen Crowder (0-2) was put to sleep after an innocuous jab 9 seconds into the fight
- As far as I can see Rozenstruik has no ground game so I’m hoping Arlovski at least attempts to take him down here
- Even a 41, Arlovski is still performing at a reasonably high level, he outstruck Ben Rothwell 152-70 according to fight metric and prior to that lost a questionable split decision against Sakai, a fight where he landed almost double the number of shots once again
- One more encouraging thing for Arlovski is the fact he hasn’t been finished in a long time (since the Ngannou fight) I feel Rozenstruik’s main path to victory here will be an early KO.
EDMEN V TAVAREZ
UFC Analysis – UFC 244: Tavarez to win at 2.15 with Pinnacle – 4 units
- Edmen is unbeaten in the UFC and has looked impressive with his elite-level wrestling and overall physicality
- With that being said, this is his toughest test yet. Tavarez has good takedown defense and is the better striker
- From Tavarez’ last 7 fights in the UFC he’s only lost twice, and those came against two of the best fighters in the division (Adesanya and Whittaker)
- His last 3 wins have all come over high-level grapplers too so I see him holding his own in the grappling here.
- From my experience, it’s always advisable to oppose unbeaten prospects in these spots.
COREY ANDERSON V JOHNNY WALKER
UFC Analysis – UFC 244: Corey Anderson to win at 2.5 with Sportsinteraction – 3.5 units
- Johnny Walker has risen to fame in the UFC for three successive explosive knockouts. There’s no doubt he’s a danger and extremely explosive but should Anderson get out of the first few mins he should be a huge favorite for this fight
- Anderson has the wrestling advantage and from what we’ve seen from Walker he’s extremely uncomfortable when he’s not a distance striking
- Anderson is coming off 3 back to back impressive unanimous decision wins over decent level opponents (Latifi, Glover, and Cummins) The Glover fight was particularly impressive in my opinion, Latifi also carries a huge KO threat and he dealt with that effectively.
- Ultimately there are too many unknowns about Walker so I’m happy to have my money on the elite wrestler at + odds.
THOMPSON V LUQUE
UFC Analysis – UFC 244: Thompson to win at 1.8 with Bet365 – 5 units
- Luque is going to have problems closing the distance and landing strikes on Wonderboy. He tends to thrive in fights when he can brawl and I don’t see him getting that type of fight tonight.
- Luque is extremely hittable which we saw in his last few fights against inferior strikers to Wonderboy
- The Brazilian absorbs 4.72 significant strikes per minute compared to Wonderboy who only absorbs 2.54
- Luque has only ever fought one “Top 10” guy at welterweight and that came against Leon Edwards in 2017.
- He lost a clear unanimous decision, this match-up against Wonderboy represents his 2nd fight against a Top 10 level opponent at WW
- Luque has also had a whole bunch of “gimmie” fights against, especially low-level guys. Laprise, Turner, Barberena, and Krantz all come to mind
- My one doubt of Thompson is his chin. Anthony Pettis KO’d him with a superman punch last time out and we know Luque hits like a truck.
- With that being said that the only time Wonderboy has been KO’d in his career.