Serie A Betting Tips – Outright Market 19/20
Serie A Betting Tips: Juventus have been dominant in Serie A for the last 8 seasons, only Napoli in 17/18 came close to breaking their winning streak. This season, however, will be a lot more competitive.
Reasons to fade Juventus this season
- Juve have taken a gamble by dismissing Marotta (Now at Inter) and Allegri last season. The two brought Juventus a lot of success in both Europe and domestically.
- Juve’s new coach (Sarri) has been in management for 19 years and won one trophy, that was the Europa League with Chelsea last season. During the Europa League run Chelsea faced just two teams from a “Top 5” league. Eintracht Frankfurt and Arsenal. I don’t want to take anything away from Sarri but this doesn’t raise his stock much in my opinion.
- Juve have an extremely bloated squad after failing to get rid of some dead weight in the summer. This has already caused problems in the dressing room with Emre Can coming out publically to criticize Sarri after being left out of their Champions League squad
- Defensive issues (more below)
- De Ligt is showing signs that he will probably need a while to adapt to playing in a new league.
- Chiellini’s absence is huge. Bonucci and de Ligt just don’t offer the same protection. Throughout Conte and Allegri’s tenure, Juve always relied on a rock-solid backline to win games. They won’t have that this season
- Juve don’t have the most consistent attackers. Ronaldo posted his worst numbers in recent years scoring just 21 goals last season.
- Higuain was offered to every major club in Italy during the summer but Juve failed to offload him, Mandzukic who linked up wonderfully with Ronaldo last season is off to Qatar, Dybala has played just 19 mins of league football this season and doesn’t appear to be a favourite for Sarri so far.
- Dybala is loved by the Juventus fans but his 5 goals and 2 assists from the whole of last season is a huge concern for a club of Juve’s stature. Over the last 4 season’s Dybala has only generated 9.87 xG per season which in my opinion is poor for a Juventus Forward
- Winning a 9th Scudetto isn’t on the top of Juve’s wishlist this year. They desperately want the Champions League and put a priority on that tournament while rotating their squad in Serie A.
The Main challenger?
Inter Milan will be the biggest threat to Juventus this season and I believe the current price on offer won’t last.
- So far this season, Inter are perfect under Conte winning all 4 Serie A matches. What’s more impressive is how they have restricted each opponent to fewer than 0.5xG. I expect their backline to hold up better than Juve’s this season and as we know defences win titles.
- Inter also have European football to contend with, but unlike Juventus, they are hungry for a Scudetto and will put their focus on the league over European glory.
- Conte is unbeaten in Serie A in over 90.5% of matches (115) he’s taken charge of. Early signs seem to indicate he has this Inter side highly motivated already.
The other contenders?
- Napoli are the only other team in the league that could possibly make a push for the title but considering the current market prices and what we’ve seen so far this season, Inter are the value play here.
- Roma look improved already under Fonseca but their issues in defence still remain. They cannot be considered contenders with their current backline
- Atalanta will be stretched too much with European football and not enough squad depth.
- Milan have regressed since last season, it seems Marco Giampaolo needs a lot of time to find the best system for this time.
- Lazio should make a decent push for Top 4 this season but that’s the best they can hope for in my opinion.
Inter Milan to win Serie A this season at 6.5 with Various – Oddschecker – 2 units