Serie A Top Goalscorer Tips
Serie A Top Goalscorer Tips: Last season we saw a 36-year-old Fabio Quagliarella claim the Serie A Capocannoniere with 26 goals to his name.
With the exception of Gonzolo Higuain in 15-16 (36 goals) and Luca Toni (31 goals) in 05-06, the Serie A Top Goalscorer averages about 25 goals in a season.
Below I will breakdown the contenders and where I think the value lies in the current market.
The Market – Serie A Top Goalscorer Tips
As usual, Cristiano Ronaldo has been installed as a huge 2.5 favourite, but is this a value bet? I don’t think so and here’s why
- As great an athlete as he is, Ronaldo is in decline. Apart from his heroics in the Champions League against Atletico, his league campaign wasn’t up to his usual standard.
- New Coach, We don’t know how Ronaldo will adapt to “Sarri ball”
- Juve have a lot of attacking options (Dybala, Higuain, Mandzukic, Douglas Costa Moise Kean + links to players like Icardi this summer), we can’t be guaranteed he plays week in week out
The other contenders in the market include Duvan Zapata, Icardi, Quagliarella, and Piatek.
- Icardi – Inter want him out, too much risk considering his short price of 11.00 (10/1)
- Piatek – I like Piatek a lot and I think he’ll be in the mix but I don’t like his price of 6.00 (5/1), it’s too short for my liking.
- Zapata – Zapata exceeded his xG last season and with Champions League Football I doubt Atalanta will repeat their goalscoring form in Serie A again this season.
- Quagliarella – He’ll be 37 during the middle of the season and Sampdoria have a new coach, we don’t know how much he’ll be involved under di Francesco. I wouldn’t bet him if his price was 50/1 (currently 10/1)
Our man – Serie A Top Goalscorer Tips
Ciro Immobile to finish Top goalscorer @ 15.00 (14/1) represents excellent value in my opinion. Here’s why
- Immobile scored just 15 league goals last season but did hit the woodwork more than any other player in Europe ( 8 times)
- At the time of writing, he still has a very good supporting cast a Lazio with Luis Alberto and Milinković-Savić still at the club.
- If he stays injury-free he’ll start most league games
- Lazio have been a “Top 5” team over the last 5 years in terms of expected goals and with Inzaghi still, at the helm, we should expect more attacking football form them.
- Prior to last season’s 15 goal tally, Immobile had scored 29 (17/18) and 23 (16/17)
- Immobile is Lazio’s dedicated penalty taker
Assuming he stays healthy for next season Ciro Immobile will be right in the mix for the Capocannoniere. I recommend you take this price of @17.00 with a 1 unit stake (Bet365, Betfair, PaddyPower)