Premier League Top Goalscorer Tips
We are now through 8 Gameweeks in the Premier League and are ready to see where the value might lie in the Premier League Top Goalscorer betting market. Below we take a look at 5 critical metrics. Player xG (expected goals) Total Shots, Shot accuracy, Penalties, touches in the box as well the strength of schedule for their respective teams.
Harry Kane @ 3.5
Harry Kane is the overwhelming favourite to finish the season with the most goals (3.5 with most books) but does the England captain warrant this price as the favourite? Let’s take a look at his numbers so far this season.
xG (Expected Goals): 4.49xG
Kane is exceeding his xG ranking slightly this term with 5 goals scored in the league from an xG total of 4.49.
Penalties: Kane is the designated penalty taker for Spurs which is always an important factor when considering a Top goalscorer bet. So far this season he’s converted 2/2 penalties.
Shots: Kane ranks 25th in the league for shots ‘per 90 mins’ with only 2.8 per game so far this season however he is the most accurate shooter in the Premier League with 59.1% of his shots hitting the target.
Touches in Box: Kane ranks 12th in the league for ‘Touches in the Box’ this season
Schedule so far: 6 of Spurs 8 Premier League games this season have come against teams that finished in the bottom half last season or who were promoted. With Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, and Wolves all on the horizon for Spurs, we don’t see things getting any more comfortable for them.
Conclusion: Harry Kane is exceptionally efficient in front of goal and will continue to be Spur’s main goal-scoring threat this season. However, we don’t see much value in this price which is probably a result of the previous two seasons and his World Cup Golden Boot achievement.
Sergio Aguero @ 4.33
Aguero is the 2nd favourite in the market here at 4.33, The Argentine has netted 20+ goals in each of the last 4 seasons so presuming he stays healthy and Pep’s No.1 frontman he could easily represent a value bet for punters at this stage of the season.
xG (Expected Goals): 5.53xG
Aguero is pretty much in line with his xG total having netted 5 goals from an xG total of 5.53. Unlike Kane, however, he hasn’t had two penalties to boost his total. All Aguero’s goals are non-penalty goals
Aguero is the designated penalty taker for Man City but is yet to have the opportunity to convert anything this season. In each of the last three season’s however he has scored at least 4 times from the penalty spot
Aguero leads the league for Shots per 90 mins with 4.93 but is way down the list of accurate shooters with only 33.3% of his shots hitting the target
Touches in the Box:
Along with Hazard, Salah, and Sterling Aguero leads the league for touches inside the box with a total of 46
Schedule so far: Man City have had an average schedule so far with their only real tests coming away to Arsenal (2-0 win) Wolves away (1-1) and Liverpool away (0-0). Judging by the xG numbers the team is posting and Pep Guardiola’s influence on matches we see no reason why Man City’s will slow down in terms of goalscoring and creating chances
Conclusion: Because it’s rare that Aguero actually plays 90 mins and because Pep will want to rotate the squad competing in multiple competitions we can’t advise Aguero at these odds.
Eden Hazard @ 7.00
Hazard has started to play some of the best football of his career under Maurizio Sarri and is already looking like a real contender for the Top goalscorer award with 7 goals bagged in Chelsea’s opening 8 games.
xG (Expected Goals): 3.91xG
Hazard is massively overshooting his xG total for the season so far having scored 7 goals from 3.91xG . Conventional wisdom will tell us that this isn’t sustainable long term.
Penalties: Hazard is the designated penalty taker for Chelsea and has already found the net twice from the spot this season.
Shots: Hazard ranks 11th in the league with 3.36 shots per game and in terms of accuracy is up there with the best hitting the target 43.5% of the time
Touches in the box: Hazard is joint top in this department with Salah, Sterling, and Aguero. His average touches per 90 mins this season is far higher than in previous season’s which may be a result of Sarri’s tactical use of the Belgian
Schedule so far: Chelsea have had a rather easy schedule so far facing only one team that finished in the Top 4 last season (Liverpool) In the coming weeks things will get slightly more difficult.
Conclusion: It’s clear Hazard is playing a more attacking role under Sarri but we don’t believe this level of scoring for Chelsea will continue at this rate so we can’t advise a bet on him for Top goalscorer despite his 7 goals already.
Lukaku @ 19.00
Lukaku hasn’t exploded into form this season but still has 4 goals to his name with a rough start to the season for Jose Mourinho’s men. The Belgian front man is no stranger to challenging for the Golden boot, in 12/13 he finished 6th in 16/17 he finished 2nd, in 17/18 he finished 6th once again.
xG (Expected Goals): 4.14xG
Lukaku ranks 8th in the league for xG per 90 mins with 4.14xG which is almost exactly in line with his actual goals
Penalties: With Pogba being the designated penalty taker for Man Utd at the moment it’s unlikely the Belgian will get the chance to convert any.
Shots: Lukaku is averaging only 2.3 shots per game but like Harry Kane he is excellent and converting chances and hitting the target so we won’t let this low shot count put us off too much.
Touches in the box: Lukaku ranks joint 9th in the league for touches in the box with 36 (10 behind the leaders)
Schedule so far: Like a lot of the bigger teams Man Utd have a tough run leading up to Xmas so performances will need to improve for Lukaku to increase his output.
Conclusion: Despite United’s woes continuing we are seeing a slightly more attacking Manchester side, so far this season they’re posting xG numbers of 1.89 per match which is higher than the last 3 seasons. If Lukaku stays healthy he will score goals, and with no reliable back up we can expect him to start most PL games at CF
Mitrovic @ 51.00
Mitrovic has been in fantastic form since joining Fulham earlier this year. Since February the Serb has found the net 17 times in 26 starts for the Cottagers
xG (Expected Goals): 5.32xG
Mitrovic has the 4th highest xG in the league with 5.32 and is pretty much inline with his goal tally of 5 this season. This is a good sign as it shows he’s not just getting lucky.
Penalties: This is a tricky one, since joining Fulham they haven’t had a penalty from what I can see. The last time they received a penalty was back in January and was taken by Oliver Norwood who is no longer with the club. It’s believed that Tom Cairney is the first choice when starting and then Mitrovic in his absence
Shots: Mitrovic is joint 2nd in the league at the moment only behind Aguero. This is very encouraging considering Fulham’s relative strength to the big boys in this league.
Schedule so far: It’s never easy for newly promoted sides but with a nicer run of games coming up (Cardiff, Huddersfield, Bournemouth, and Southampton) the Cottagers should look to score more and put more points on the board to secure their survival for next season.
Conclusion: Mitrovic ticks all the boxes for me at this price, he will continue to be a threat for Fulham regardless of how badly they’re performing at the back. Like Lukaku, Mitrovic also gets a lot of minutes which is a big factor.
Raul Jimenez @ 201.00
Raul Jimenez who is on loan from Benfica this season is unlucky in our opinion not to be among the Premier League Top goalscorers already this season. The mexican has netted twice so far but it should be a lot more.
xG (Expected Goals): 4.84xG
Jimenez has only found the net twice despite generating the 5th highest xG total in the Premier League this season.
Penalties: Jimenez is a great penalty taker but it’s likely that Wolves will continue to rotate their designated taker as they did in the Championship last season.
Shots: Jimenez ranks 6th in the league for Shots so far this term which is very encouraging considering his current market price.
Schedule so far: Wolves have performed admirably so far and are unbeaten since losing to Leicester on gameweek 2, looking at their schedule leading up to the New Year we won’t be surprised to see them climb even higher in the table a lot of very winnable games on the horizon.
Conclusion: Simply put, Wolves should be scoring more goals than they are based on the chances they’re creating. Jimenez is their main threat and starts at CF so we expect the Mexican to start converting these chances and rack up a nice tally by the end of the season. It’s also worth noting that Nuno Santo doesn’t rotate much, he’s kept the same XI for every single game this season
Summary of Bets:
- Romelu Lukaku Top Goalscorer at 19.00 – 0.5 units
- Aleksandar Mitrović Top Goalscorer at 51.00 – 0.2 units
- Raúl Jiménez Top Goalscorer at 201.00 – 0.1 units