Premier League Betting Preview - 27th October

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Premier League Betting Preview - 27th October

Premier League Betting Preview – 27th October

Brighton v Wolves

  • Brighton have a decent home record when facing ‘Top Half’ teams W4 D2 L4
  • Away from home Wolves have only conceded 3 times this season, only Man City and Chelsea are better, however, goals haven’t been flowing either with only 3 goals scored. Only Cardiff are worse in that department.
  • Brighton have two important absentees in Pascal Groß and Davy Pröpper. Glen Murray who suffered a concussion recently is also a doubt but should start.
  • Wolves are healthy and Nuno is expected to once again name an unchanged XI
  • Brighton have won 36 of their 51 Premier League points at home (70.6%), the third-highest percentage in the history of the competition.
  • Chris Hughton has only lost 1 of his 8 previous meetings against Wolves as a manager, winning three and drawing four.

Fulham v Bournemouth

  • Fulham come into this home game with Bournemouth having the worst defense in the league ranking 2nd worst in xGA (21.57) and worst for goals conceded (25)
  • Fulham will, however, be boosted by the return of Tom Cairney who is expected to be fit enough to start
  • In terms of attack, Fulham haven’t been terrible as they rank 10th for xG and 8th for Shots per 90 mins
  • Bournemouth will be near full strength for this game with Charlie Daniels being the only doubt
  • Bournemouth have taken 23 points from the last 33 available (W7, D2, L2)
  • The Cherries have won three of their last five league away games,  However, they have only won 1 of their 8 away games against promoted opposition
  • Bournemouth currently rank 4th for xG (17.24) and 4th for goals scored (16) this season
  • Finally, Bournemouth haven’t had that much luck when traveling to “Bottom 6” teams as they have failed to win 7 of their last 10 while conceding 1.9 goals per game.

Liverpool v Cardiff

  • Liverpool were involved in a Champions League game mid-week but they hardly broke a sweat brushing aside Red Star Belgrade. Klopp also rotated the starting XI so we shouldn’t see any tired legs here
  • Liverpool are playing well this season but are yet to show us the same attacking threat. So far this season they trail Man City, Arsenal, and Chelsea in terms of goals
  • Keita and Henderson will miss out in this game but have adequate cover so shouldn’t be weakened
  • Liverpool have remarkably kept 9 clean sheets in a row at Anfield in the Premier League. If they secure another clean sheet here it will be a Premier League/Top Flight record
  • Cardiff have scored just 1 goal in their last six Premier League away matches so Liverpool could well break the clean sheet record
  • Only 4 teams in the Premier League have a worse goalscoring record than Cardiff (Huddersfield, Southampton, Crystal Palace, and Newcastle)
  • Cardiff will be weakened at CM as Ralls is serving out a 3 game ban. Arter and Murphy are also believed to be carrying knocks.
  • Cardiff are one of the best teams in the Premier League (Only Man City & Man Utd are better) for winning Aerial Duels so expect them to try and cause Liverpool problems from set-pieces
  • Cardiff, however, are the worst team in the league at passing the ball with a pass accuracy of only 73.5%

Southampton v Newcastle

  • Newcastle have had a tough opening schedule to contend with so their league position of 20th probably isn’t a fair reflection
  • Opponents so far include Spurs, Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal, and Manchester United
  • Newcastle are unbeaten in 8 of their last 10 matches with teams in the bottom 6 (Southampton 16th)
  • Newcastle will be boosted by the return of Clark (CB) and Rondon (CF)
  • Newcastle are the first team since 1930 to have played the first nine games of a top-flight season without a victory or score draw.
  • Southampton Manager Mark Hughes has won just 1 of his 13 Premier League meetings with Rafael Benitez (D6, L6)
  • Only Fulham and Burnley have been worse defensively than Southampton with a total xGA of 17.69

Watford v Huddersfield

  • Watford will be boosted in defense with Kabasele and Holebas returning to the defence. Troy Deeney is, however, a doubt with a hamstring injury.
  • Huddersfield only noticeable absentee with be Terrence Kongolo at CB
  • Watford are unbeaten in 8 of their last 10 home games against teams in the bottom 6 of the table.
  • Huddersfield are winless in 9 of their last 10 away games when facing teams in the Top half of the table
  • In these games, Huddersfield also gave up 2.4 goals per game
  • Huddersfield are rock bottom in the league for xG (6.39) and goals scored (4).
  • The Terriers have earned just 3 victories and 16 points in their 23 Premier League away matches (D7, L13).

Leicester v West Ham

  • West Ham will be without Yarmolenko, Obiang, Sanchez, and Wilshere, Leicester only significant absentee is Wes Morgan at CB
  • Leicester have lost just one of their last seven Premier League games against West Ham (W4, D2).
  • Leicester have kept just 4 clean sheets in their last 23 Premier League fixtures.
  • Leicesters record when hosting teams in the bottom half of the table is poor W2 D4 L4
  • West Hams 7 points from 9 games is their worst return at this stage of the season since 2010-11, when they finished bottom.
  • West Ham have conceded at least one goal in 12 of their last 13 away games in the league
  • West Ham have conceded 27 league away goals in 2018; only Leicester, with 30, have a worse record.

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