MMA Betting Strategy | There are a few do’s and do not’s in the MMA Betting World. Below I will outline a few basic MMA Betting Strategies that should improve your MMA Betting in the long run
Age | MMA Betting Strategy
These are very broad numbers but what the data shows is that the prime age for a fighter is between 25-30 with that age range having the highest win rate (56%) The worst age range for a fighter which shouldn’t be a surprise is 36+ years of age with a win rate of just 43%
The difference in age:
- 5-year gap: Young beats old 61% of the time
- 10-year gap: Young beats old 65% of the time
- 15-year gap: Young beats old 69% of the time.
You see the trend here right? Obviously, match-ups play a key part in fights and we can’t automatically write off the older fighter but it is worth keeping in mind when placing your next MMA Bet.
Reach disadvantage| MMA Betting Strategy
Reach advantage is something you should consider a lot for your MMA Betting strategy but only if you believe the fight is going to stay standing.
In the popular MMA book Fightnomics we read that from the data set used from 2007 to 2013 we see that the fighter with the better reach advantage wins the fight 56% of the time. But this isn’t the most interesting part.
With a 2.5” reach advantage of better we see a 60% win rate
With this in mind, you should keep your eye out for significant reach advantages in fights that will proably stay standing.
Well Known| MMA Betting Strategy
Well known fighters tend to get their lines pushed in lower because of public money coming in on them. A perfect example of this is either Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz or Ronda Rousey v Holly Holm.
Both Ronda and Conor saw their lines artificially low with the public betting heavily on the celebrity fighters to win their bouts.
McGregor was a 1.17 favorite in some places for his first bout with Diaz. While Ronda Rousey was a 1.08 favorite against Holly Holm.
If you’re not familiar with how those fights played out, both big favourites lost and lost fairly.
Low Significant Strikes per Minute | MMA Betting Strategy
There is a strong correlation between the pace fighters put on and their win %. A fighter who has a low SLpM: average (Strikes landed per minute) will have a drastically reduced chance of winning.
This may seem obvious but it’s worth checking these stats before you decide to bet. UFCStats.com will break down these averages like the image below
Short Notice | MMA Betting Strategy
Generally speaking, it’s not advisable to bet on a fighter who is coming in on short notice. In MMA, fighters often pull out of fights because of an injury picked up during training camp. Often the UFC will look to bring in a replacement fighter in an attempt to keep the fight card full.
Looking at the last 215 bouts involving a late replacement (40 days or fewer) we see a 62% loss rate for these fighters.
The shorter the notice, generally the worse their odds get as well.
Take for example the last 50 fights in which a fighter has come in on 1 weeks notice, we see a 74% loss rate.
Orthodox vs Southpaw| MMA Betting Strategy
For the most part, Orthodox fighters will struggle against Southpaws. The sheer awkwardness of the match-up is what plays into the Southpaws favour.
Statistics taken from MMA Betting website BetMMA.tips show from the last 400+ such match-ups, Southpaw beats Orthodox 54% of the time.
If you are unsure of the fighters stances you can also check these on
- Consider Age, Youth is often an advantage
- Reach advantage is real
- Is the fighter well known?
- Low Strikes per minute is a red flag
- Short notice fights don’t favour the replacement fighter
- Southpaws have success against Orthodox fighters.