Golf Betting Tips – Q&A: We’ve asked our followers to ask us whatever questions they have regarding our Top 20 finish model on Golf.
In 2019 we have posted +56.11 units with an ROI of 28.06% however our Golf expect Ian has been testing this model over far larger time frame and his long term results read +792.80 units after 4436 bets with an ROI of 17.87%
Below are the questions we were asked over the last few days, If you have any others please leave them in the comments section or DM me on twitter @Golf_Insiders
1. How’s the line movement been shortly after the bets have been posted? I guess it correlates some with how many people are signed up for the service, especially since top x outright golf is a relatively small market. The main thing that makes me hesitate about signing up is the issue of reading a preview too late and missing out on the lines.
Answer: It’s optimal to back the selections as quickly as you can once they are released. Some prices will be cut quickly while others will hold up. You are correct in saying that the Top 20 market is relatively small compared to the Winner market however liquidity on the exchanges is generally good late on Wednesdays so offers members another option to get on. I always recommend a minimum price to back at which is generally achievable even if you place the bets late after they are released.
2. Why are we betting on so many selections each week? Betting 20 units in one go seems like a risky proposition
Answer: The model identifies +EV (positive expected value) bets from live market prices. The number of bets varies each week but profitable gambling is all about backing +EV edges. We are not concerned about the number of bets as each bet is implied value. It would be sub-optimal to ignore a subset because its alot of bets. Our minimum bank recommendation of 100 units will protect you at all times.
3. I already asked you, but is it possible to bet only with exchange markets like Betfair and Matchbook as in my country other bookmakers are forbidden?
Answer: Its possible to bet on the Betfair exchange exclusively by waiting until liquidity arrives on Wednesday afternoons. Your expectations around long run ROI% will need to be revised but it is possible to profit from the selections provided you stick to the minimum price requirements. I would estimate that a 10% ROI is possible over the long run which is very good for solely betting on the exchanges.
4. What is the logic behind betting the same exact amount on every proposed player, completely disregarding the actual odds given by the firms on each of them? I am no Golf expert but betting wise, the only answer that makes sense is that the players with higher odds have a higher probability of getting in the top-20 but that can’t be as it would mean that we consistently find huge mistakes from the various firms! Could you please explain this? Thanks!
Answer: The majority of selections advised each week range from 5/1 to 20/1. Detailed analysis of various staking systems was conducted over a dataset of over 20k bets and level staking came out the most profitable (and it wasn’t even close). The downside is that there is more risk as we are betting the same amount on a player at 20/1 as 5/1. To counteract this we need a bigger bank which we recommend at 100 units which is the minimum.
5. I’m from the US, Is this package only advisable if I have access to Irish/English Sports-books?
Answer: It’s advisable to have access to those firms however the Betfair exchange is also an option.You will need to check with the books you have access too currently on whether they offer this market.
6. Are your weekly selections +EV for all other markets as well like Winner/Each-way, To make the Cut, Top 10 etc…
Answer: Generally yes but the implied value % varies across each market. I wouldn’t advise backing the selections in alternative markets as a rule but the Top 10 and Top 20 markets are closely correlated (in value % terms) so that market is a good substitute.
5. How much of a starting bank should I have before deciding to follow your Golf bets?
Answer: 100 units is the minimum requirement. All bets are 1 unit bets. If you can I would advise a 150 unit
6. I’ve been restricted on one of my accounts, have you run into the same problem trying to get bets down?
Answer: Yes. Its been a very long time since I have been able to bet with bookmakers under my own name. Its the nature of the beast unfortunately but there are ways around this. You can follow the service by betting on the Betfair exchange. It will not be as profitable as betting with bookmakers but still profitable.
7. Mainly @InsidersTennis but @Bookieinsidrs too tend to lay (cover) the bet they placed at a certain point to ensure a profit or avoid variance, especially if they noticed their team/player isn’t playing that well anymore. Is something similar applicable in golf? If not, is there something else worth doing to avoid variance?
Answer: In-play liquidity is not great on this market so I will never be able to advise a lay bet. Hedging is generally not something you would do on this market anyway as the variance is nothing like betting on the Winner market. Variance in gambling is unavoidable so its something you just have to embrace. People forget that variance is also positive!
8. I’ve heard betting on Golf can be very frustrating. What the worst draw down you’ve had on your Top 20 model?
Answer: Golf betting has a reputation of being very frustrating which is correct when you are betting on the Winner market. You have to endure long spells of no returns which is very tough to deal with psychologically (even for pros). This is one of the reasons why we operate in the Top 20 market; to smooth out the returns and offer alot more consistency to members. The worst drawdown for this system was 45 units.
9. Are there cases when you notice live golf bets worth of pursuing? Would you consider proposing such cases?
Answer: It is very possible to offer bets in between rounds. The model updates all prices for all markets so its certainly a possibility if there was enough demand for it.
10. How are you looking to improve/refine your approach to selections?
Answer: Overall I am happy with how the model produces the outputs (prices) as this has been tweaked over the years from the original version. No model is perfect however and the main area of development is around a players course form. From a data science viewpoint its hard to incorporate this into a model as there is very little history for most players. We know it has an effect it’s just quantifying the effect is tricky.