Free Tennis Tips - Oct 17th

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Free Tennis Tips - Oct 17th

ATP MOSCOW

Free Tennis Tips

GERASIMOV V RUBLEV

Gerasimov +3.5 games at 1.75 with Pinnacle – 2 units

  • Rublev has an abysmal record here (1-6) and only narrowly got past Bublik in the last round. Today he’ll be facing a similar opponent with a huge serve who should be able to disrupt the Russian’s “rhythm” once more
  • Rublev hasn’t been excellent against “Big Servers” recently, especially on indoor hard court where he’s lost 4 of his last 6 
  • Gerasimov has looked impressive here again, he beat Molleker and Benchetrit in qualification and then blew past Thomas Fabbiano in the 1st round
  • Gerasimov has now won 10 of his last 11 on indoor hard court, his only loss coming to Daniil Medvedev
  • In Russia Gerasimov tends to play his best too, Over the last 12 months he’s 12/14 here
  • Gerasimov’s hold/break % on indoor hard court indicates he’s a little bit too generously priced. He holds serve 81.6% compared to Rublev who holds only 79.5%
  • Not much separates them on return either with Gerasimov breaking serve 18.3% compared to Rublev who breaks 22.7%

Verdict: I believe Gerasimov shouldn’t be priced this high, I have him closer to the 2.2/2.3 range so anything above that is a value bet.

ATP Antwerp

Copil v Schwartzman

Schwartzman -2.5 games at 1.61 with Pinnacle  – 3 units

  • Schwartzman who we know has a weak serve actually holds serve at a similar rate to Copil on indoor hard court (both around 78%)
  • On return Schwartzman will have a massive advantage, he breaks serve 29.1% compared to Copil who breaks only 13.1%
  • Factor in the slow-paced court as well and it goes even more in the favour of the Argentinian
  • These two played on a faster surface earlier this year and Schwartzman won that contest by 6 games 6-3 4-6 6-1
  • Copil is 0-3 this year when facing Top 20 opponents
  • On indoor hard court, he’s 8-7 with his only win over a Top 100 opponent coming in the last round against an out of shape Delbonis
  • Schwartzman has a great record here going 9-3 in his career. He’s made the Final twice and the semis once

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