Europa League Outright Tips
Europa League Outright Tips: Olympiakos @ 200/1 with Unibet – 1 unit
- Like most bets of this nature, I’ll start by saying I don’t think Olympiakos are likely winners of this competition.
- However with that being said 200/1 is an absurd price for KO tournament of this nature. With a bit of luck we’ll be able to lock in a profit if they get into the later rounds.
- Olympiakos dropped down to the UEL after a very respectable showing in a difficult Champions League group
- From their UCL matches (incl qualifier with Krasnodar) Olympiakos scored on average 1.75 per game while conceding 1.25. These numbers were also pretty much in line with their xG averages
- At home, Olympiakos conceded just 0.83 goals per 90 despite playing both Bayern and Spurs (better opposition than what’s left in this tournament)
- From these home games they scored 2.5 goals per match while generating an impressive 2.27 xG 18.33 attempts on goal
- Over the last calendar year, Olympiakos have been incredibly consistent in all competitions scoring 2.19 per game and conceding just 0.79
- Their success is in no short part down to the appointment of Pedro Martins. From his 75 games in charge, Olympiakos are unbeaten in 85.33% and only 0.73 goals conceded per game.
- Their opponent up next is Arsenal which is part of the reason we get such a high price.
- At the time of writing, Arsenal are still a club in transition. It’s believed that an unproved Mikel Arteta may take the job but that shouldn’t mean we expect and instant revival from the Gunners. I feel a lot of work is needed at that club and they’re very beatable in this tie
- Arsenal currently have the 5th worst defence in England. They have already slipped up in Europe against Frankfurt, Guimaraes, and Standard Liège
- If we observe Arsenal’s road games for the last year in Europe we see some very concerning performances and a negative xG total (-0.18xGD)
Verdict: There are no heavyweights in this tournament. If Olympiakos can get past this test (Arsenal) we will be in a great position