El Clasico Betting Preview

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El Clasico Betting Preview

El Clasico Betting Preview

Real Madrid will welcome Barcelona to the Bernabeu on Wednesday night for the second leg of their Copa del Rey semi-final, with the tie level at 1-1 from the first leg at Camp Nou.

At the time of writing the odds ‘To Qualify’ for the final are

  • Barcelona 1.71 (58.5% chance)
  • Real Madrid 2.27 (44.1% chance)

Barcelona will need to score at least once if they hope to qualify for the final having conceded an away goal in the Camp Nou.

Below I will outline some of the key metrics for both teams so we can determine the best value bets for the match.

Key Metrics

  • Barcelona have been very strong away from home this season. In La Liga, they are averaging 2.25 points per game and are scoring at a rate of 2.2 goals per game.
  • 75% of their road games in La Liga since November have seen Barca scored 2+ goals
  • In their two previous Copa del Rey away games (Levante & Sevilla) Barca rested key players and lost both. They should be close to full strength for this game with Arthur Melo being the only noticeable absentee.
  • Barcelona have scored 3+ goals in their last three visits to the
    Santiago Bernabéu .
  • Real Madrid are having a poor season by their standards, they’re 9 points adrift of Barcelona in the league and are having serious problems in defence.
  • Real Madrid rank 11th for expected goals against this season (xGA) meaning they are giving their opponent’s too many good goalscoring chances for a team of their stature.
  • Also In terms of goals allowed they rank 9th in La Liga.
  • Real Madrid like Barcelona will be close to full-strength for this El Clasico with the only weakened position being at GK. Keylor Navas is the cup GK and will come in for Courtois.
  • When looking at League data for how these clubs perform against Top 6 opposition we can see that Barca has the edge with their last 10 reading W7 D3 L0 with 26 scored and 11 conceded

Real Madrid possible XI: Keylor, Carvajal, Varane, Ramos, Regulion, Kroos, Casemiro, Modric, Vinicius, Benzema, Lucas V.

Barcelona possible XI: ter Stegen, Alba, Pique, Lenglet, Roberto, Rakitic, Busquets, Vidal, Dembele, Suarez, Messi.

Video analysis

Best Bets?

There are two bets we like for this game which I discuss in the video above.

  • Barcelona Over 1.5 team goals @ 1.92 with Pinnacle
  • Lionel Messi to score @ 1.98 with Unibet

Barca need to chase this game as they’re technically losing on away goals, expect an open game with plenty of chances at both ends of the field.

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