Coppa Italia Final – Atalanta v Lazio
The bookies can’t separate these two, Both teams are priced around 1.91 to lift the Trophy, below we’ll attempt to see where the advantage lies.
Atalanta are flying high and have been one of the most significant surprise packages of the season.
As of this weekend, they sit in 3rd place in Serie A and a Champions League spot for next season seems almost secured.
Atalanta’s path to the final wasn’t easy; they got past Cagliari, Juventus, and Fiorentina while scoring 10 and conceding 4.
In terms of xG (expected goals) across the four games, we can see Atalanta with the superior chance creation numbers 8.97-4.35.
With the final being played in the Stadio Olimpico Lazio will have partial home-field advantage for this game.
The Biancocelesti are sitting in 8th place, so if they want European football next season, this is probably their only chance.
Lazio’s path to the final was arguably tougher than Atalanta’s; they got past both Milan clubs as well as lower league Novarra.
Defensively Lazio were excellent with only two goals conceded. In their two-leg semi-final with Milan, they barely gave the opposition a sniff at goal giving up just 0.76 xGA over 191 mins.
- Lazio are unbeaten in 15/20 games at the Stadio Olimpico this season (Serie A & Coppa) – With that being said, however, they have lost all of their home games against the teams in the Top 4
- Napoli, Inter, Juventus, and Atalanta have all visited the Stadio Olimpico this season and come away with a win. Lazio conceded 2+ goals in all of these matches.
- In their last home game they were beaten comfortably by Atalanta (1-3). Lazio created a paltry 0.37xG in that game.
- The fact that Atalanta were missing three central defenders is another concern for Lazio’s attack (Mancini, Toloi, & Masiello)
- Atalanta are unbeaten in 8 of their last 10 away matches with “middle-third” teams (Lazio 8th).
- From these games Atalanta W7 D1 L2 with 2.3 goals scored per game. Only Juventus and Napoli have a better record away from home.
- Lazio have failed to beat Atalanta in any of their last 4 meetings and have failed to keep a clean sheet in all of those games (8 conceded)
Verdict: You could make the argument for both of these teams lifting the Coppa but the fact remains that this exact fixture was played only a few days ago and one team was head and shoulders above the other.
Atalanta Over 1.5 team goals at 2.27
Atalanta to lift the Trophy at 1.91 with Unibet/Sportingbet
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