Bayern Munich – Chelsea vs Bayern Tips
- Bayern have decided to stick with Hansi Flick until the summer. They’ve made it clear their target is Tuchel but they will have to wait until the summer to have any chance fo bringing in the current PSG Coach
- Salihamidžić has also made it clear that there will be no winter business done in January to strengthen their squad
- Presuming not more injuries Bayern will still be without their best CB Niklas Sule.
- Despite recent wins we’ve seen some very concerning performances. Heading into the winter break they’re 6 points behind league leaders RB Leipzig.
- In the two matches he’s taken charge of against teams that aggressively press the ball, they lost both (Leverkusen and Gladbach).
- They were also recently nearly embarrassed by Freiburg and Wolfsburg, Late goals bailed out Flick.
- If we ignore the Spurs results this season. Bayern have a concerning record against teams from Top 5 leagues in recent seasons
- Liverpool completely outclassed them last season in the KO rounds, and semi-finalists Ajax drew both of their matches with them
- Prior to last season, they were knocked out by Real Madrid losing 2-1 and drawing 2-2 at the Bernabeu
- In the group phase they were also hammered by PSG before beating them in the final group game.
Chelsea – Chelsea vs Bayern Tips
- Chelsea aren’t the most efficient team at pressing but they are still “Top tier” for an EPL team (ranked 6th)
- There are other reasons to be optimistic. Chelsea’s young talents have exceeded expectations under Frank Lampard and now that they’ve had their transfer ban lifted will surely reinforce the squad in January. Jadon Sancho is reportedly one of their targets.
- At the time of writing, Chelsea has the 3rd best-attacking team in the EPL and the 4th best defence.
- Despite finishing 2nd in the group, Chelsea’s underlying xG numbers from the 6 group games were excellent. On average they put up 2.7xG while conceding just 1.06xG
Verdict: The odds are off. At these odds the market is suggesting Chelsea only have a 22% chance of qualifying. I make that figure at least 40% (2.5 implied)
Chelsea v Bayern – Chelsea to qualify @ 4.5 with Sportingbet (min odds 4.00) – 2 units