Champions League Top Goalscorer Tips

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Champions League Top Goalscorer Tips
Champions League Top Goalscorer Tips

We’re now into the knockout stages of the competition and the first legs of the R16 will take place over the next couple of weeks. We take a look below at what realistic options are left on the table for this market.

First let’s take a look and who’s leading the race so far.

  1. Lewandowski – 8 (4.00)
  2. Messi – 6 (2.88)
  3. Dzeko – 5 (18.00)
  4. Neymar – 5 (11.00)

I’m not going to consider anyone else at this time as I believe the winner will be from these four players.

Robert Lewandowski

The Polish hitman’s production has dropped off severely this season. Lewandowski’s Bundesliga numbers show only 0.64 goals per 90mins which is far from the norm for him.

We should also note that Bayern had a very easy group this term with AEK, Benfica, and Ajax.

How far will Bayern progress in the tournament?

Bayern Play Liverpool next and there’s a very good chance that they get knocked out in the R16 and that Lewandowski doesn’t add to his goal tally.

Personally I love the match-up for Liverpool so I have to pass on Lewandowski as I think it’s unlikely they progress to the 1/4 finals.

Edin Dzeko

Dzeko has fantastic numbers in the Champions League these past two seasons with Roma. The Bosnian has scored 13 goals in the Champions League this season and last.

With that said however I don’t see Roma progressing much further than the R16, the Giallorossi have struggled immensely in defence all season and don’t have the strength to go deep in this tournament.


Neymar has 5 goals this term but the goals amongst this PSG side tend to be shared quite evenly between Cavani, Mbappe, and himself.

We also have to consider how prone Neymar is to injury, as of right now he has a serious injury which could require surgery. Some French media outlets have even mentioned that his season could be over.

So even with PSG’s goal-scoring ability we can’t take a chance on the Brazilian with his current injury situation.

Lionel Messi

Finally, we get onto the selection where we feel there is great value. Barcelona will play Lyon the R16, a team that Barcelona can beat with ease and score plenty against.

Of all the teams left in the competition none have conceded as many goals as Lyon (11)

Can they progress all the way?

There’s no reason they can’t get to at least the semi-final or final, Barca have been knocked out in the 1/4 finals in the last two seasons now but we don’t see the same this year.

Barca are in a comfortable spot in La Liga right now so the focus will be geared towards European triumph.

Despite having probably the toughest group of all Barca came through in flying colours with the 4th best xG production and the 5th best goalscoring record.

Messi also has the highest ‘Goals per 90mins’ in the competition with 1.69, the Argentinian has played only 4 of the group games and scored 6.

Also over 106 Champions League games Messi still maintains a 0.82 goals per game ratio which is by far the best in the history of the competition at least in the modern era.

Champions League Top Goalscorer Tips

Full disclosure*
I already have pre-tournament (small stakes) on Bale, Benzema, and Gabriel Jesus who all have 3 goals, I felt these represented value at the time but they’re likely out of the running at this stage.

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