Bundesliga Betting Tips

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Bundesliga Betting Tips

Bundesliga Betting Tips – Top 4 Finish

Bundesliga Betting Tips

Wolfsburg to finish in the Top 4 @ 41.00 with Bet365 – 1.5 unit – Bundesliga Betting Tips

  • Only 6 points separate Wolfsburg (9th) from 4th place currently
  • One metric that jumps off the table when you look at the Bundesliga stats for the season so far is Wolfsburg’s defensive numbers. So far this season they rank 2nd in xGA behind RB Leipzig and have conceded the least amount of goals this season (18)
  • Their new swiss coach Oliver Glasner has worked wonders with this team and I expect them to go from strength to strength in the 2nd part of the season providing their squad can stay relatively healthy
  • Wolfsburg have lost five times this season. Let’s examine them further…
  • 2-0 loss away to Bayern. No shame there but Bayern were in real trouble for the majority of this game. Wolfsburg’s intense pressing caused them all kinds of problems and it wasn’t until 85th minute that Joshua Zirkzee gave Bayern the lead. The xG for that match was 1.59-0.87 in Bayern’s favour
  • 1-0 loss to Freiburg. Wolfsburg won the xG battle here by a small margin so a draw probably would have been a fairer outcome
  • 3-2 loss to Werder Bremen. Again Wolfsburg played well and won the xG count 2.24-1.8. A draw would have been a fairer result
  • 2-0 loss to Leverkusen. This was another close game with the xG showing Leverkusen edging it 1.15-0.4. Up until injury time in that match, Wolfsburg had limited Leverkusen to one decent chance (Bellerabi 25th minute)
  • 3-0 loss to Dortmund. This was a deserved loss but as the xG total shows, perhaps a little bit flattering to Dortmund. If we ignore Dortmund’s penalty the xG was 1.49-1.09 in Dortmund’s favour.
  • Schedule: Wolfsburg come back from the winter break with a kind schedule. None of their first 7 opponents after the break will be a top 6 side (Köln, Hertha, Paderborn, Düsseldorf, Hoffenheim, Mainz, and Union Berlin.)
  • Finally, like most bets of this nature, I’ll say that I don’t expect Wolfsburg to make the Top 4, but their odds are too big here (should be 20/1)

Profit & Loss

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